How the kremlin thinks and wages the war

The article is published on the initiative
of Vice President of the Independent Analytical
Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”
Olexandr Bielov.

Oleksandr Lytvynenko,
Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine

russia’s large-scale war against Ukraine, which has been going on for 21 months, has entered a critical period. Today, a lot depends on a balanced assessment of the enemy’s intentions. This text was written to convey to the society how this war is perceived in the kremlin.

putin’s Global War

putin believes that having failed to defeat Ukraine in three days in a large-scale war, the kremlin has passed the point of no return in relations with the West. There is no turning back, putin can only triumphantly win, or lose crushingly.

He is convinced that it is possible to return Ukraine and the rest of the “historical russian lands” and restore the empire only within the framework of the global redivision of the world. Such a redivision can take 10–15 years, accompanied by conflicts of varying scale and intensity, possibly with the use of nuclear weapons. Moreover, the war against Ukraine is now perceived by the kremlin as an important, but not the only front for the rf, which is actually waging a world war against the United States and the West as a whole.

This approach leads to four tasks that the kremlin is resolving.

putin’s Four Tasks

Task 1 — to ensure internal stability, mobilize the population and the economy, increase the production of weapons and military equipment.

So far, the kremlin has ensured the stability of the economy and the manageability of socio-political processes. The political field has been cleaned up: the liberal and far-right (so-called “turbo- patriots”) oppositions have been destroyed or marginalized.

In 2026, the volume of military production in the rf should support large-scale high-intensity hostilities, and in 2028, the rf should restore the military capabilities it had in 2022.

It is for this that the russian budget for 2024–2026 was formed. Already in 2024, almost 40 % of budget expenditures go on war (29.4 %, or more than $100 billion, for defense and 9.2 %, or $34 billion, for law enforcement and special services). In 2025 — 35 % ($93 billion and $35.5 billion, respectively), in 2026 — 30.5 % ($80 billion and $37 billion, respectively). In 2023, these figures were 31.8 % ($69.5 billion for defense and $35 billion for law enforcement and special services).

Task 2 — to form a coalition of states, alternative to the West, a “coalition of the majority”. This Global South+ format should promote alternative to the West models (political, economic, financial, humanitarian, value-based, etc.).

The rf’s goal in building a majority coalition is to “normalize the West”, turning it into another region (Euro-Atlantic) with the prospect of further embedding Western countries in its regions (North America, Europe, East Asia), and turning the United States into just another leading world country. In their view, the West is a powerful but retreating nature.

To do this, it is necessary, in particular, by intensifying nuclear blackmail, to break the West’s will to confrontation, to persuade the Western elites that they will definitely lose and they should retreat peacefully. The key role here will be the strengthening of the military power of russia, China and other countries of the coalition of the majority.

Ultimately, Western countries have to choose between becoming an isolated fortress or joining the majority of the world community.

The confrontation between the rf and the West is fundamental, not only geopolitical and geo-economic, but also value-based.

At this, the result of russia’s war against Ukraine is of global importance and will be a powerful impetus for changing the global balance in one direction or another.

In an effort to create an international coalition, putin flirts with Muslims inside russia. Despite of many russians’ dissatisfaction, the kremlin allows the head of chechnya, r. kadyrov, to conduct publicly extrajudicial reprisals against a suspect in the desecration of the Koran.

stalin’s traditions of anti-Semitism are also seen in the kremlin as a tool for establishing relations with the pro-palestinian camp. At a meeting of security officials after the pogroms in dagestan, putin did not condemn anti-Semitism as such, but rather expressed dissatisfaction only with its uncontrollable manifestations.

Task 3 — Preparation for Future Aggression Against Other Countries.

Currently, the priority is Moldova and the Baltic countries: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia (the entire western part of the former ussr). The kremlin has already begun such work. The alleged reason is the violation of the rights of russian speakers (primarily Latvia, Estonia). moscow is already crying out about the oppression of russian speakers in the Baltics and the peoples’ right to self-determination.

After the expulsion of russian diplomats-spies, the russians are actively infiltrating the countries of Europe, especially those of South Europe, — by sending agents, creating businesses, NGOs, etc. There are signs of preparing the infrastructure of subversive activities for a major war (an approach tested during the soviet era).

Task 4 — Fomenting Conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans.

The rf’s approaches to the Middle East conflict are well- known. But let’s not forget about Africa. The public execution of prigozhin does not mean that the kremlin has abandoned prigozhin’s modus operandi on the continent.

The rf is forming an “expedition corps”, involving not only the remnants of the wagner pmc, but also the main directorate of the general staff, the russian foreign intelligence service and the fsb of the rf. moscow has already tested an approach where the actions of pseudo-mercenaries are closely coordinated with the activities of agents of influence in the local establishment, as well as a pool of political technologists and spin-doctors (political back office). All this has to ensure the political landscape in the country or region needed by the kremlin.

The russians seek to take advantage of the weakening of the position of the West, especially France, in the Sahel and in Africa in general. We are talking about natural resources, attempts to limit Europeans’ access to uranium, oil and gas, and get rid of alternative sources of supply.

putin’s Ukrainian Front

The goals are the same. putin needs as much territory of Ukraine as he can get, because to russians it means “the return of primordial russian lands”.

The war has entered the stage of a war of attrition. There is more and more evidence that the kremlin is ready to wage war for as long as it takes. The rf is already laying down the “special military operation” factor in the plans for manning the russian armed forces with military recruitment in 2024–2025.

The kremlin believes that it has enough resources (military-technical, economic and human) for hostilities with Ukraine at the current level for a long period. At the same time, moscow is convinced that Ukraine’s internal resources are allegedly “approaching complete exhaustion”.

At the suggestion of the fsb of the rf (which considers the current strategy to undermine Western military, economic and political assistance ineffective), the kremlin plans to adjust the strategy. The key to russia’s victory is internal destabilization in Ukraine.

It is going to concentrate on three tasks:

• pressure along the entire front line with the capture of certain media and politically important points, in particular Avdiivka;
• destruction of critical infrastructure (power plants, oil refineries, transport hubs) in winter to reduce the quality of life;
• undermining social unity by fueling ambitions and provoking the military (“only they can restore order”) and opposition political forces (“only they are worthy of governing Ukraine”). A critical mass of dissatisfaction with the policy of the current government has to form in Ukraine. russians don’t care who comes to power after the current leadership. They are convinced that whoever it is, he will not be able to control the situation, and Ukraine will plunge into chaos. Eventually, the West will not only suspend aid, but will come to the rf with proposals for urgent negotiations and suspension of the war.

This, or something like this, the kremlin thinks over and plans. Forewarned is forearmed. Ukraine is fighting for its freedom and the freedom of all nations of the world. Free people will defeat slaves.

Source: The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine